Tehran (January 16, 2006) – With Iran’s last week actions, breaking the IAEA seals on its Natanz reactors on Tuesday, resuming its nuclear “research”, and daring European call to bring the dispute before the UN Security Council on Friday, the Iranian nuclear bomb poker game has come down to the river card. Besides Iran, there are still four players left at the table: (1) Europe as represented by the E3 group (Britain, France and Germany), (2) the United Nations, (3) Israel and (4) the US. The key question now is who will call and who will fall.Europe E3: A lot of talks but no beef. An economic sanction as a punishment to the Mullahs is equivalent to “no more New York Times” to the Internet news junkies, meaning nothing. Military options are resting on the bureaucratic NATO and the nascent European Rapid Reaction Force ERRF. But don’t count on it. Even when NATO invoked its Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on September 12, 2001, determining that the 9/11 attack was considered as an armed attack against all NATO members, NATO did almost nothing to lead the war in Afghanistan. They only contributed only after the war was won by Americans. Prognosis for Europe E3: Fold
United Nations: Based on the leadership of the appeaser-in-chief Kofi Annan and the resistance of veto-powers Russia and China, the prognosis for the UN is quite easy: Fold
Israel: This Jewish nation appeared to have weak hands with its pragmatic leader Sharon out of action indefinitely and its unenviable status as potential first-victim of an Iranian nuclear bomb. But history has proved differently in similar situation. Prognosis for Israel: All-in
USA: The cards in the American hands are not strong. Limited military capability available to strike quick, and questionable supports on the domestic front make a decision very tough. Prognosis for the US: Check
